PEPPER=WORLD MKT PRESENT SITUATION
According to the Customs data, in May 2021, Vietnam exported 27,963 tons, less 7.9% compared to May 2020. In the first 5 months from January 1st to May 31st , 2021 Vietnam has exported 121,338 tons with a turnover of $ 379.6 million, compared to the same period in 2020, the export volume decreased by 17.1%, but the export turnover increased by 23.0%.
- The Americas with an increase in imports in the first 5 months reached 27,398 tons, up 0.4% over the same period. The US is the largest import market from Vietnam with 24,636 tons, down 0.4%.
- Africa's imports down by 38.4%, of which Egypt decreased by 48.4% from 6,035 tons to 3,114 tons.
- Asia's imports decreased by 25.1%, of which China was the second largest import of Vietnam, down 29.4% to 23,657 tons compared to the import volume of 33,508 tons in the same period. Some other markets also a decrease in imports such as India, the Philippines, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh and increased imports in the United Arab Emirates, Korea, Iran, Japan ...
- European imports decreased by 4.1 % from Germany, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Israel... Import volume increased in the UK, France, Ireland, Italy...
Based on the data pepper import and export situation in the past 3 years from 2018 - 2020. Let's look back and predict the possible scenarios in the coming time from June - December 2021;
No | Countries | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Average Quantity last 3 years | Imported First 5M 2021 | Need cover from June to December 2021 |
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1 | China | 34,439 | 57,523 | 56,050 | 49,337 | 23,657 | 25,680 |
2 | America | 44,140 | 49,346 | 54,991 | 49,492 | 24,636 | 24,856 |
3 | United Arab | 9,781 | 10,359 | 13,040 | 11,060 | 7,317 | 3,743 |
4 | India | 20,441 | 20,039 | 12,598 | 17,693 | 5,984 | 11,709 |
108,801 | 137,267 | 136,679 | 127,582 | 61,594 | 65,988 |
No | Countries | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Average Quantity last 3 years | Imported First 5M 2021 | Need cover from June to December 2021 |
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1 | Other Market | 121,533 | 147,252 | 148,613 | 139,133 | 60,198 | 78,935 |
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| 78,935 |
Which scenario will be happening?
Section | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 |
Carryover (stock last few year 2019 – 2020) | 50,000 | 40,000 | 40,000 |
Crop 2021 | 230,000 | 200,000 | 170,000 |
Total Import 2021 | 30,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 |
Exported in first 5 months | 121,000 | 121,000 | 121,000 |
Domestic consumption | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
Lost weight when process white pepper | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
China / USA / UAE / INDIA need cover next 7 months | 65,988 | 65,988 | 65,988 |
Other market need to cover from June to Dec 2021 | 78,935 | 78,935 | 78,935 |
Quantity available for next 7 months for other market | 24,077 | -15,923 | -45,923 |
Possibility | 50% ? | 50% ? | 0% |
Whatever the scenarios happen or another scenario has not been mentioned. However, we can clearly see that the inventory volume of 2021 will decrease sharply and is expected to continue to decrease in 2022. Therefore, selling pressure from households / agents and exporters as very low will make pepper prices trend to continue to stabilize / increase in the short and medium term.
Pepper prices last week kept increasing momentum due to quite good demand from China and other countries such as the USA / EU / ASIA, especially big demand from Nepal / India. Although the situation of freight rates continues to increase and it is difficult to get containers along with the epidemic, it is still complicated. Rising freight rates have pushed raw material up. However, pepper prices still maintained a very strong upward momentum despite the above difficulties. The US and EU have gradually returned to normal activities, which has boosted consumption demand. The SPOT market in the US and EU were also recorded with a strong increase in demand in the past week.
IMPORT COUNTRIES IN FIRST 5 MONTHS
No | Countries | First 5M | First 5M | 2021 | TOTAL | +/- % | ||||
2019 | 2020 | JAN | FEB | MARCH | APRIL | MAY | 21/20 | |||
1 | America | 22,734 | 24,724 | 3,962 | 3,686 | 6,285 | 5,367 | 5,336 | 24,636 | -0.4 |
2 | China | 36,038 | 33,508 | 2,756 | 1,403 | 7,347 | 7,425 | 4,726 | 23,657 | -29.4 |
3 | United Arab | 6,070 | 5,424 | 1,098 | 657 | 2,125 | 1,994 | 1,443 | 7,317 | 34.9 |
4 | Pakistan | 6,906 | 6,261 | 363 | 418 | 2,758 | 1,701 | 1,078 | 6,318 | 0.9 |
5 | India | 12,365 | 7,517 | 767 | 891 | 1,341 | 1,107 | 1,878 | 5,984 | -20.4 |
6 | Germany | 5,631 | 5,892 | 568 | 546 | 623 | 1,931 | 1,245 | 4,913 | -16.6 |
7 | Netherlands | 3,949 | 3,380 | 585 | 271 | 928 | 760 | 892 | 3,436 | 1.7 |
8 | Egypt | 4,185 | 6,035 | 192 | 162 | 836 | 1,336 | 588 | 3,114 | -48.4 |
9 | Korea | 2,951 | 2,742 | 290 | 191 | 522 | 901 | 1,009 | 2,913 | 6.2 |
10 | England | 1,883 | 2,443 | 543 | 387 | 534 | 696 | 471 | 2,631 | 7.7 |
11 | Philippine | 2,642 | 2,510 | 500 | 275 | 430 | 480 | 603 | 2,288 | -8.8 |
12 | France | 720 | 1,254 | 50 | 361 | 411 | 715 | 671 | 2,208 | 76.1 |
13 | Russia | 2,095 | 2,902 | 274 | 219 | 414 | 571 | 708 | 2,186 | -24.7 |
14 | Turkey | 1,896 | 2,099 | 241 | 303 | 412 | 789 | 375 | 2,120 | 1 |
15 | Thailand | 3,234 | 2,859 | 530 | 154 | 539 | 351 | 435 | 2,009 | -29.7 |
16 | Iran | 2,990 | 1,835 | 349 | 265 | 355 | 458 | 554 | 1,981 | 8 |
17 | Ireland | 3,320 | 661 | 155 | 359 | 498 | 59 | 900 | 1,971 | 198.2 |
18 | Canada | 1,205 | 1,325 | 273 | 223 | 414 | 344 | 353 | 1,607 | 21.3 |
19 | Japan | 1,165 | 1,327 | 324 | 149 | 303 | 423 | 247 | 1,446 | 9 |
20 | Poland | 1,044 | 1,652 | 45 | 222 | 325 | 481 | 234 | 1,307 | -20.9 |
21 | Saudi Arabia | 1,860 | 2,045 | 241 | 86 | 456 | 356 | 114 | 1,253 | -38.7 |
22 | Australia | 861 | 825 | 282 | 202 | 253 | 189 | 316 | 1,242 | 50.5 |
23 | Spain | 1,124 | 1,148 | 202 | 147 | 168 | 410 | 194 | 1,121 | -2.4 |
24 | South Africa | 1,433 | 1,012 | 284 | 157 | 273 | 260 | 126 | 1,100 | 8.7 |
25 | Senegal | 1,496 | 1,631 | 263 | 302 | 28 | 109 | 294 | 996 | -38.9 |
26 | Ukraine | 660 | 819 | 51 | 49 | 72 | 252 | 261 | 685 | -16.4 |
27 | Bangladesh | 478 | 1,069 | 69 |
| 309 | 213 | 75 | 666 | -37.7 |
28 | Israel | 1,170 | 1,212 | 72 | 27 | 277 | 131 | 151 | 658 | -45.7 |
29 | Taiwan | 450 | 491 | 52 | 66 | 123 | 286 | 126 | 653 | 33 |
30 | Malaysia | 658 | 509 | 84 | 93 | 122 | 144 | 178 | 621 | 22 |
31 | Vietnam | 202 | 300 | 98 | 35 | 84 | 76 | 279 | 572 | 90.7 |
32 | Gambia | 512 | 765 | 207 | 124 | 28 | 152 | 43 | 554 | -27.6 |
33 | Italy | 409 | 372 | 31 | 48 | 142 | 57 | 186 | 464 | 24.7 |
34 | Mexico | 236 | 492 | 28 | 40 | 123 | 67 | 134 | 392 | -20.3 |
35 | Singapore | 493 | 626 | 7 | 40 | 132 | 68 | 130 | 377 | -39.8 |
36 | Greece | 324 | 473 | 116 | 25 | 41 | 117 | 44 | 343 | -27.5 |
37 | Ghana | 54 | 167 | 28 | 83 | 84 | 56 | 28 | 279 | 67.1 |
38 | Kazakhstan | 268 | 179 |
| 66 | 104 | 52 | 49 | 271 | 51.4 |
39 | Tunisia | 225 | 409 |
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| 77 | 68 | 106 | 251 | -38.6 |
40 | Sudan | 256 | 546 |
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| 27 | 218 | 245 | -55.1 |
41 | Algeria | 404 | 919 |
| 81 | 50 |
| 108 | 239 | -74 |
42 | Mauritania | 279 | 167 | 127 | 28 | 54 |
| 28 | 237 | 41.9 |
43 | Croatia | 65 | 195 |
| 25 | 72 | 118 | 17 | 232 | 19 |
44 | Belgium | 119 | 178 | 59 |
| 58 | 58 | 35 | 210 | 18 |
45 | Guinea | 207 | 126 | 43 | 28 |
| 98 | 14 | 183 | 45.2 |
46 | New Guinea |
| 654 | 55 | 96 |
| 31 |
| 182 | -72.2 |
47 | Kuwait | 274 | 259 | 32 |
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| 54 | 95 | 181 | -30.1 |
48 | New Zealand | 174 | 204 | 48 | 16 | 71 | 9 | 30 | 174 | -14.7 |
49 | Syria | 294 | 279 | 17 | 71 | 28 | 55 |
| 171 | -38.7 |
50 | Bulgaria | 152 | 311 | 15 |
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| 95 | 52 | 162 | -47.9 |
51 | Iraq | 201 | 528 |
| 16 | 55 | 63 | 28 | 162 | -69.3 |
52 | Guatemala | 85 | 69 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 46 | 40 | 159 | 130.4 |
53 | Oman | 238 | 188 | 43 | 43 | 42 | 27 |
| 155 | -17.6 |
54 | Latvia | 90 | 202 |
| 58 |
| 60 | 25 | 143 | -29.2 |
55 | Finland | 189 | 130 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 49 | 33 | 137 | 5.4 |
56 | Sweden | 218 | 227 | 10 | 35 | 84 |
| 3 | 132 | -41.9 |
57 | Qatar | 167 | 286 | 47 |
| 10 | 30 | 43 | 130 | -54.5 |
58 | Yemen | 437 | 357 |
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| 15 | 98 |
| 113 | -68.3 |
59 | El Salvador | 121 |
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| 3 | 27 | 52 | 27 | 109 | 100 |
60 | Lithuania | 125 | 138 |
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| 79 | 14 | 93 | -32.6 |
61 | Hongkong | 91 | 46 | 25 |
| 23 | 26 | 15 | 89 | 93.5 |
62 | Nepal | 3,288 | 3,826 |
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| 16 | 73 | 89 | -97.7 |
63 | Afghanistan | 16 |
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| 27 | 61 |
| 88 | 100 |
64 | Libyan | 122 | 192 | 30 | 56 |
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| 86 | -55.2 |
65 | Venezuela | 36 | 18 | 16 |
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| 20 | 48 | 84 | 366.7 |
66 | Morocco | 793 | 241 | 18 | 25 |
| 35 |
| 78 | -67.6 |
67 | Nigeria | 54 | 47 | 1 | 25 |
| 28 | 23 | 77 | 63.8 |
68 | Lebanon | 176 | 116 |
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| 51 | 25 |
| 76 | -34.5 |
69 | Bahrain | 95 | 136 | 38 |
| 11 | 11 | 16 | 76 | -44.1 |
70 | Dominica | 45 | 14 | 5 |
| 12 | 21 | 36 | 74 | 428.6 |
71 | Indonesia | 355 | 119 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 70 | -41.2 |
72 | Georgia | 144 | 122 |
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| 42 | 12 | 15 | 69 | -43.4 |
73 | Romania | 156 | 215 | 22 | 16 |
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| 28 | 66 | -69.3 |
74 | Jamaica | 111 | 101 | 17 | 25 |
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| 17 | 59 | -41.6 |
75 | Argentina |
| 29 | 5 |
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| 24 | 25 | 54 | 86.2 |
76 | Chi Lê | 56 | 274 |
| 9 | 30 | 13 |
| 52 | -81 |
77 | Norway | 24 | 61 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | 13 | 51 | -16.4 |
78 | Uzbekistan |
| 52 |
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| 50 | 50 | -3.8 |
79 | Mali | 28 |
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| 50 |
| 50 | 100 |
80 | Hungary | 24 | 50 | 17 |
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| 29 | 46 | -8 |
81 | Estonia | 69 | 104 | 11 |
| 17 |
| 10 | 38 | -63.5 |
82 | Panama | 38 | 162 | 5 |
| 18 | 9 | 5 | 37 | -77.2 |
83 | Costa Rica | 31 | 32 | 15 |
| 19 |
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| 34 | 6.3 |
84 | Reunion | 18 | 37 |
| 17 |
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| 17 | 34 | -8.1 |
85 | Peru | 29 | 8 | 6 |
| 20 |
| 1 | 27 | 237.5 |
86 | Djibouti | 1 | 15 |
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| 27 |
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| 27 | 80 |
87 | Kenya |
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| 27 |
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| 27 | 100 |
88 | Slovakia |
| 125 |
| 25 |
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| 25 | -80 |
89 | Azerbaijan |
| 11 |
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| 25 |
| 25 | 127.3 |
90 | Angola |
| 5 | 24 |
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| 24 | 380 |
91 | Guyana | 21 |
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| 21 | 21 | 100 |
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Regarding VPA data, in the first 5 months of 2021, Vietnam imported 16,357 tons, of which black pepper reached 12,026 tons, white pepper reached 4,331 tons. Compared to the same period in the first 5 months of 2020, the import volume increased by 28,9%. Indonesia – 5,982 tons, Brazil – 4,498 tons and Cambodia – 3,228 tons are the 3 largest pepper exporting countries to Vietnam. Compared to the same period in 2020, imports from Indonesia increased by 35,8%, from Cambodia increased by 84,4%, but imports from Brazil decreased by 14,6%.
No | Countries | First 5M | First 5M | 2021 | TOTAL | +/- % | ||||
2019 | 2020 | JAN | FEB | MARCH | APRIL | MAY | 21/20 | |||
1 | Indonesia | 10,754 | 4,404 | 1,878 | 365 | 1,088 | 1,511 | 1,140 | 5,982 | 35.8 |
2 | Brazil | 8,843 | 5,267 | 1,186 | 1,113 | 1,027 | 645 | 527 | 4,498 | -14.6 |
3 | Cambodia | 1,245 | 1,747 |
| 126 | 480 | 775 | 1,847 | 3,228 | 84.8 |
4 | Other | 1,070 | 1,272 | 522 | 123 | 235 | 267 | 1,502 | 2,649 | 208 |
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| Total | 21,912 | 12,690 | 3,586 | 1,727 | 2,830 | 3,198 | 5,016 | 16,357 | 28.9 |
CASSIA/ STAR ANISE/ TURMERIC;
Last week we saw a very strong demand for cassia from USA / EU / ASIA that pushed the price up from 75 - 150 USD each grade. Currently, whole cassia are almost out of stock and it is forecast that the price of cassia will continue to increase in the near future.
I would like to give you an indication price PEPPER / CASSIA / STAR ANISE / TURMERIC… based on NET FOB HCM as follows;
1/ WHOLE PEPPER;
NO | ITEM | FOB (USD/MT) | EU MAINT PORT | NY/BAL |
PINHEAD PEPPER |
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1 | PINHEAD < 1MM SUPER CLEANED | $873 | $1,561 | $1,673 |
2 | PINHEAD 1.5MM - 2MM CLEANED | $1,243 | $1,931 | $2,043 |
3 | PINHEAD 2MM - 2.5MM CLEANED | $1,690 | $2,377 | $2,490 |
4 | PINHEAD SUPERIOR QUALITY | $2,136 | $2,824 | $2,936 |
5 | LIGHT BERRIES TO EXTRA OIL (6-7% PIPERINE) | Please Contact | Please Contact | Please Contact |
WHOLE PEPPER |
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6 | VBP 500 G/L FAQ | $3,363 | $3,756 | $4,003 |
7 | VBP 550 G/L FAQ | $3,588 | $3,981 | $4,228 |
8 | VBP 500 G/L Spiral Cleaned | $3,637 | $4,030 | $4,277 |
9 | VBP 550 G/L Spiral Cleaned | $3,735 | $4,128 | $4,375 |
10 | VBP 550 G/L Spiral Cleaned Pesticide | $3,935 | $4,328 | $4,575 |
11 | VBP 570 G/L ASTA | $3,801 | $4,194 | $4,441 |
12 | VBP 5MM Jumbo Size | $3,917 | $4,309 | $4,557 |
13 | White PEPPER 630 G/L DW | $5,218 | $5,611 | $5,858 |
14 | White PEPPER 630 G/L ASTA | $5,263 | $5,656 | $5,903 |
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2/ STEAM STERILIZED PEPPER & PESTICIDE GUARANTEE EU COMPLIANCE;
NO | ITEM | FOB (USD/MT) | EU MAINT PORT | NY/BAL |
STEAM STERILIZED PINHEAD PEPPER FOR GRINDING |
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1 | Steam Sterilized Pinhead < 1MM | $1,223 | $1,911 | $2,023 |
2 | Steam Sterilized Pinhead 1.5MM - 2MM | $1,593 | $2,281 | $2,393 |
3 | Steam Sterilized Pinhead 2MM - 2.5MM | $2,040 | $2,727 | $2,840 |
4 | Steam Sterilized Pinhead Super Quality | $2,486 | $3,174 | $3,286 |
STEAM STERILIZED PEPPER |
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5 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 500G/L | $3,896 | $4,289 | $4,536 |
6 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 550G/L | $4,029 | $4,422 | $4,669 |
7 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 570G/L | $4,095 | $4,488 | $4,735 |
8 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 5MM | $4,191 | $4,584 | $4,831 |
9 | Steam Sterilized White Pepper 630G/L | $5,640 | $6,033 | $6,280 |
STEAM STERILIZED PEPPER - EU COMPLIANCE |
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10 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 500G/L | $4,076 | $4,469 | $4,716 |
11 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 550G/L | $4,209 | $4,602 | $4,849 |
12 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 570G/L | $4,275 | $4,668 | $4,915 |
13 | Steam Sterilized Pepper 5MM | $4,371 | $4,764 | $5,011 |
14 | Steam Sterilized White Pepper 630G/L | $5,820 | $6,213 | $6,460 |
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3/ CASSIA/TURMERIC/STAR ANISE;
NO | ITEM | FOB | NOTE |
1 | WHOLE CASSIA; | $3,611 | >4% VO |
2 | CASSIA SPLIT; | $3,522 | >4% VO |
3 | CASSIA BROKEN CLEANED 2% VO; | $2,357 | >2% VO |
4 | CASSIA BROKEN CLEANED 2.5% VO; | $2,712 | >2.5% VO |
5 | CASSIA BROKEN CLEANED 3% VO; | $3,067 | >3% VO |
6 | CASSIA BROKEN CLEANED 3.5% VO; | $3,378 | >3.5% VO |
7 | CASSIA BROKEN CLEANED 4% VO; | $3,867 | >4% VO |
8 | CASSIA STICK CUT 6 - 10CM - ROLLED 90%; | $5,654 | >4% VO |
9 | CASSIA CIGARETTE LONG STICK | $5,565 | >4% VO |
10 | CASSIA POWDER 1 - 1.5% VO; | $1,824 | 1-1.5% VO |
11 | CASSIA POWDER 2% VO; | $2,179 | 2% VO |
12 | CASSIA POWDER 2.5% VO; | $2,401 | 2.5% VO |
13 | CASSIA POWDER 3% VO; | $2,623 | 3% VO |
14 | STAR ANISE SUPERIOR; | $17,779 | 2.5cm, 80% up |
15 | STAR ANISE STANDARD; | $17,557 | 2.0cm, 80% up |
16 | TURMERIC FINGER; | $1,504 |
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17 | POLISHED TURMERIC FINGER; | $1,730 |
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18 | TURMERIC POWDER; | $1,414 |
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19 | TURMERIC SLICE SUN DRIED; | $1,459 |
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20 | WASHED TURMERIC SLICE SUN DRIED; | $1,594 |
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21 | TURMERIC SLICE MACHINE DRIED; | $1,594 |
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4/ CASSIA STEAM STERILIZED PESTICIDE GUARANTEE;
NO | ITEM | FOB | EU MAIN PORT | USA MAIN PORT |
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1 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA BROKEN 2% VO; | $2,757 | $3,433 | $3,698 | ||
2 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA BROKEN 2.5% VO; | $3,112 | $3,789 | $4,053 | ||
3 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA BROKEN 3% VO; | $3,467 | $4,144 | $4,409 | ||
4 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA BROKEN 3.5% VO; | $3,778 | $4,455 | $4,720 | ||
5 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA BROKEN 4% VO; | $4,267 | $4,944 | $5,208 | ||
6 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA POWDER 1 - 1.5% VO; | $2,324 | $2,784 | $2,964 | ||
7 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA POWDER 2% VO; | $2,679 | $3,139 | $3,319 | ||
8 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA POWDER 2.5% VO; | $2,901 | $3,361 | $3,541 | ||
9 | STEAM STERILIZED CASSIA POWDER 3% VO; | $3,123 | $3,583 | $3,763 | ||
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5/ PEPPER POWDER PESTICIDE GUARANTEE;
GROUND STEAM STERILIZED BLACK PEPPER | USD/MT |
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- Half Cracked HTST black pepper; | $5,330 |
- Granulate HTST black pepper; | $5,230 |
- Coarse HTST black pepper 12 -> 14# ; | $4,981 |
- Table HTST black pepper 18 -> 28# ; | $4,938 |
- Fine HTST black pepper 30 -> 34# ; | $4,895 |
- Ground HTST black pepper 40 -> 100# ; | $4,765 |
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GROUND STEAM STERILIZED WHITE PEPPER | USD/MT |
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- Half Cracked HTST White Pepper; | $7,338 |
- Granulate HTST white pepper; | $7,199 |
- Coarse HTST white pepper 12 -> 14# ; | $6,989 |
- Table HTST white pepper 18 -> 28# ; | $6,928 |
- Fine HTST white pepper 30 -> 34# ; | $6,867 |
- Ground HTST white pepper 40 -> 100# ; | $6,685 |
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Thank You & Warm Regards!
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